Box-Cox正态转换在长江子流域极端降水气候事件判定中的应用     

吴瑶  杜良敏  刘长征  张俊 《湖北气象》2022,41(1):94-100

利用1961-2017年长江流域700个气象站点逐月降水资料计算长江流域9个子流域面雨量,采用基于Box-Cox正态分布转换后的百分位法对长江流域不同时间长度的极端降水气候事件阈值进行界定。结果表明,在数据序列长度发生变化的情况下,面雨量序列经Box-Cox正态转换后,计算得到的极端降水气候事件阈值的变化相较于常规百分位法明显减小,具有更为稳健的特性,从而使得相应极端降水气候事件个例的挑选更为稳定。根据该方法得到的阈值,对2018年汛期(6-8月)长江各子流域极端降水气候事件进行判定,岷沱江流域发生了极端多雨气候事件,而长江干流重庆-宜昌段、汉江及中游干流区间发生了极端少雨气候事件。  相似文献   

基于风险矩阵的重大活动气象风险评估          下载免费PDF全文

轩春怡  吴春艳  刘勇洪  舒文军 《大气科学学报》2022,45(5):791-800

基于风险矩阵理论,初步建立了重大活动气象风险评估方法与流程,并以北京某重大庆祝活动服务为例,在多部门联合共同确定活动期间气象风险源的基础上,利用长时间序列气象资料及短期测风雷达观测资料,分析了庆祝活动期间各类气象风险的可能性,结合对活动可能造成后果的严重程度,利用风险矩阵开展了气象风险评估及风险控制研究。评估结果表明,庆祝活动期间主要气象风险依次为降水/阴雨、白天大风、雾-霾、夜晚大风、高温、雷电、低温等7类。其中,降水/阴雨、白天大风、雾-霾为高风险,夜晚大风为中风险,其余均为低风险,根据评估结果建立的风险控制原则和具体措施成功应用于庆祝活动风险控制中。与现有气象业务服务中天气风险评估相比,本研究实现了重大活动气象风险评估由仅考虑高影响天气出现概率向基于影响的风险评估的转变。  相似文献   

升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱耕地暴露度研究     

王安乾  陶辉  方泽华 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(6):695-706

基于CMIP5中的5个全球气候模式统计降尺度的降水、最高和最低气温等数据,利用标准降水蒸发指数（SPEI）和强度-面积-持续时间（IAD）方法识别全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱事件,结合30 m分辨率土地利用数据,探讨中亚干旱事件的演变及耕地暴露度变化。结果表明：相比基准期（1986—2005年),中亚地区的降水和潜在蒸发量均有所增加;全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,中亚地区的干旱事件频次、强度和面积均将增加,其中重旱和极旱事件的频次和影响面积大幅上升,而中旱事件的频次和影响面积持续下降;1986—2005年中亚地区年均干旱耕地暴露度约11.5万km2,全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下,干旱耕地暴露度将分别上升到17.9万km2和28.6万km2,且暴露在极旱下的耕地面积增加最明显。全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,增加的干旱事件将会严重威胁当地农业生产和粮食安全,中亚地区需对干旱事件采取长期的减缓与适应措施。  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Storm Surges Under Different Extreme Weather Event and Typhoon Experiments in the South Yellow Sea     

ZHANG Mingzong  ZHOU Chunyan  ZHANG Jisheng  ZHANG Xinzhou  TANG Zihao 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2022,21(1):1-14

In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.  相似文献   

Tectonics of the Scandian orogeny and the Western Gneiss Region in southern Norway     

F. H. Koenemann 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1993,82(4):696-717

Two crust-forming events dominate the Precambrian history of the Western Gneiss Region (WGR) at about 1800–1600 Ma and 1550–1400 Ma. The influence of the Sveconorwegian orogeny (1200–900 Ma) is restricted to the region south of Moldefjord-Romsdalen. A series of anorthosites and related intrusives are present, possibly derived from the now-lost western margin of the Baltic craton that may have been emplaced in the WGR as an allochthonous unit before the Ordovician.The Caledonian development is split into two orogenic phases, the Finnmarkian (Cambrian — Early Ordovician) and the Scandian (Late Ordovician/Early Silurian — Devonian). The lower tectonic units west of the Trondheim Trough may be Finnmarkian nappes ; they were part of the lower plate during the Scandian continental collision. The Blåhö nappe is correlated with dismembered eclogite bodies along the coast. A regional change of nappe transport direction from 090 to 135 marks the initiation of an orogen-parallel sinistral shear component around 425 Ma. The change caused the development of a complex sinistral strike-slip system in the Trondheim region consisting of the Möre-Tröndelag Fault Zone and the Gränse contact. The latter cut the crust underneath the already emplaced Trondheim Nappe Complex, thus triggering the intrusion of the Fongen-Hyllingen igneous complex, and initiating subsidence of the Trondheim Trough, and was subsequently turned from a strike-slip zone into an extensional fault. Minor southward transport of the Trondheim Nappe Complex rejuvenated some thrusts between the Lower and the Middle Allochthon. A seismic reflector underneath the WGR is interpreted to be a blind thrust which subcrops into the Faltungsgraben. During Middle Devonian orogenic collapse, detachment faulting brought higher units, now eroded elsewhere, down to the present outcrop level, such as the Bergen and Dalsfjord nappe and the Old Red basins.  相似文献   

多层递推平稳模型     

汤兆焘  李法然  杨育强  黄玲琳  孙建明 《气象》1994,20(11):40-43

通过对小概率事件历史样本作多层递推迭代，逐次改变引入样本数求取权函数，建立一种平稳统计模式。模式信息容量大，收敛快，克服了常规统计模式的局限性，在灾害性天气客观预报模型应用中取得了明显效果。  相似文献   

The Ground Deformation Disaster in the City of Tianjin Associated with the Tangshan Earthquake     

Huang Liren  Zhao Chengkun  Hu Huimmg  Yang Guiye  Cao XiangchunFirst Land Deformation Monitoring Center  SSB  Tianjin  China Surveying  Mapping Bureau of Tianjin Municipality  Tianjin  China 《中国地震研究》1994,(3)

In this paper,a study of the principal characteristics of the ground deformation disasters in the city of Tianjin caused by the Tangshan earthquake is based on the results from the recent remeasurements of the geodetic controlling network of Tianjin and from on-site investigations after the earthquake.These results show that only the ground deformation in the Ninghe and Hangu areas near the epicenter reflect directly the co-seismic crustal stress,while the serious ground deformation and the engineering earthquake damages in the urban districts of Tianjin are controlled to a great extent by the local engineering geological structures,showing a kind of secondary disaster.Several suggestions are also proposed in the paper concerning the counter-measures for reducing the earthquake damage in big cities.  相似文献   

Dynamics of fluvial and slope processes in the changing geomorphic environment of singapore     

Kalyani Chatterjea 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1994,19(7):585-607

The nature and rates of fluvial and slope processes change over time and space as urbanized areas replace forested land in Singapore. Storm-based and time-based data, from undisturbed rainforests, heavily disturbed construction sites, urban grass-covered slopes and an experimental plot, are collected to observe the impact of rainwater on the soil moisture conditions, surface microtopography, runoff generation, sediment movement, and ground lowering in the three different categories of land use. The undisturbed forested environment is characterized by high throughfall (58% of total rainfall) and frequent negative soil moisture suctions. The slow and unconcentrated overland flow during heavy storms is restricted by the forest floor microtopography. No rills develop. Ground lowering is recorded as 3·2–3·4 mm a^?1. But sediment movement is episodic and suspended sediment concentrations in overland flow are 172–222 mg l^?1. During urban construction, gully development is rapid on the bare slopes, runoff generation, voluminous, and sediment-laden discharges (5200–75498 mg l^?1) lead to sediment plumes at channel mouths. Ground lowering rates are measured at 132·4 mm a^?1. Once grass-covered, runoff carries less suspended sediment (800 mg l^?1) and ground lowering rates are reduced, but depend on the condition of the cover, ranging from 0·2 to 8·2 mm a^?1. As urban development continues, environments are altered both in time as well as spatially.  相似文献   

探地雷达图像的正演合成与偏移处理   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8  

邓世坤  王惠濂 《地球物理学报》1993,36(4):528-536

本文讨论了射线追踪法实现二维地电断面的探地雷达图像的正演合成问题,其中包括二维地电断面的数字拟合、多层连续界面介质中高频电磁波的反射与透射统一的运动学边界方程;根据Huygen's-Fresnel原理导出了均匀介质中二维管状体模型的衍射雷达波的计算公式;给出了用射线追踪法合成的二维地电模型的探地雷达图像;用衍射波公式合成了二维管状模型的雷达图像,并与物理模拟作了比较.在此基础上,用Kirchhoff积分法对数字模拟与物理模拟记录的雷达图像作了偏移处理,并给出了实例.  相似文献   

ENSO事件发展的时空特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

张秋庆  黄荣辉 《大气科学》1993,17(4):395-402

本文利用1951—1988年10°S—50°N太平洋SST资料与EOF分析方法对ENSO事件的发展过程与循环的时空特征进行了分析.分析结果表明EOF第一主分量时间系数的变化可以很好地表示SST距平变化与ENSO事件的发生.并且,第一主分量空间函数分布的变化揭示了一种ENSO事件增温是春季首先始于赤道东太平洋沿岸,随后向西传播到赤道中太平洋的增温过程;而第二主分量空间函数分布的变化揭示了另一种ENSO事件可增温首先始于赤道中太平洋,然后向东传播到赤道东太平洋的增温过程.分析结果还表明,ENSO事件的强度是强弱相间,其周期平均大约为4年左右. 本文还比较了80年代热带太平洋SST的变化及所发生的两次ENSO事件与其它年代所发生的ENSO事件的差别.  相似文献